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Lasse Kleemola August 27, 2008 16:46 3 Thumb-ups
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Continuation of the current trends

Robots 'R' Us:
The first useful generation of robots are quickly replacing the humans in low-training jobs in 2018.
-Receptionist/call center employee that speaks fluently all the languages of the world? Check.
-Cleaner who does not complain about human excrement and cannot be infected from dirty needles? Check.
-The lawnmover man who does not care about working hours and can groom the parks in the middle of the night? Check.
In ten years, this development could very well be the "boom" industry. Even now, prototypes of cleaning robots are already cleaning American hospitals, and a modified Honda Asimo sits behind the reception desk at Honda HQ.

As a consequence, there will be a permanent class of (less trained) people who cannot get a job since what they are able to do, a robot will do that cheaper. The only ones who are likely to maintain their jobs are the ones responsible for "support functions": marketing, R&D, administration -- production and services will be even more automated than they're now. If the society cannot (read: the politicians will not) accept this and arrange reasonable living conditions to everyone despite the fact that a growing percentage of potential workforce will be permanently unemployed, expect major social divides and civil unrest. In 2018, this development is still only emerging, but the writing is on the wall.

Reverse China Syndrome:
Oil price rises every year, but the introduction of alternate energy sources is lagging behind. Because of the advances in robotics and the expensiveness of transportation, First World companies are repatriating their production facilities closer to home and their primary markets. Expect major market crashes and severe depression in Second and Third World. Refugee influx will rise dramatically, as will human trafficking, illegal aliens, etc.

Peak Oil Redux:
In 2018, we will be laughing at the "Peak Oil" panicmongers much in the same way we now laugh at the Y2K doomsayers. Yes, gasoline is more expensive than ever and the prices of foreign goods are higher than in 2008, most food is domestically produced, and the momentary craze of €200 return flight tickets to Thailand is over, but there are still no bloodthirsty gangs prowling the nuclear wasteland even though OPEC countries have had to cut their production yearly since 2011. The market mechanisms have steered the society towards products with lower energy consumption, and other energy sources -- especially nuclear power is on the rise.

The Boob Tube:
The entertainment industry and porn industry have started to merge in 2018. Just look around you in 2008. Among the younger generation, porn is no longer the taboo it once was. Every new season of Big Brother is getting closer to gonzo porn. Movie industry is facing decreasing income, but sex will always sell... so little by little, mainstream movies will start to have hardcore sex scenes to sell them to the crowds. Moralist backlash is inevitable, but any publicity is good publicity. Even in the conservative U.S., after more and more movies are rated NC-17, theaters are starting to show them, and games that are rated AO will be sold in the same stores as the rest of them. In 2018, Hot Coffee will not be a scandal, it will be one of the main selling arguments of GTA6 (or GTA Sex, as our dear westerly neighbours would pronounce it).

Killing Is My Business... And Business Is Good:
By 2018, the majority of armed conflicts are fought by private military contractors. Since warfare between proper states is becoming less and less common, the usual conflict pits well-trained and equipped mercenaries against civilians and guerillas. Nations no longer even pretend that they would follow the UN Mercenary Convention. The "outsourced" militaries care little about Geneva Convention or (inter)national laws, placing the safety of their employees above everything else, and "collateral damage" will be much higher. Attempts to restrict the actions of PMCs will only result in that they relocate to countries that will not interfere with them... as long as those countries get protection in exchange.

I Did Smoke But I Did Not Inhale:
Discussion about drugs and intoxicants has fallen decades behind reality in 2018. While politicians still argue about legalizing cannabis, nobody under 40 is using any of "that old stuff" any more. The stuff sold on the streets has more varieties than ever: designer drugs to achieve a particular mood, utilizing chemicals that the authorities have not yet even thought about prohibiting, are pushed to the market continuously. Last year's drugs are so last season, there will be a new experience available from your local pusher at least twice a year.

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